Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in academia but very few elected officials or campaigners want to engage even with the basics. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the current situation. Each authors two pieces that aim for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions range over national emblems, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has possesses something to acquire from the alternative positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
